Bitcoin is gearing up for increased volatility in the next few hours, as the Federal Reserve is set to make its long-awaited decision on interest rate hikes. Although this is likely to cause short-term price swings, a leading analysis firm is forecasting a bullish trajectory towards $37,000 by year-end 2023. The firm further anticipates that October could serve as the launching pad for Bitcoin’s upcoming bull run.
October Has Been A Strong Month For Bitcoin
In a report released on Wednesday, crypto services provider Matrixport revealed that the last quarter of the year has traditionally been Bitcoin’s most robust period, bringing an average return of over 35% for the past nine years. Markus Thielen, the head of research, suggested that if historical patterns are any indication, Bitcoin could potentially reach $37,000 by the end of the year.
The report highlighted that October has consistently been a strong month for Bitcoin, yielding positive returns in seven of the past nine years, with an average gain of 20%. Matrixport’s technical analysis indicates a recent breakout signal for Bitcoin; the last ten instances of this signal led to an average price increase of over 9% in a brief timeframe.
Additionally, the report pointed out another potential October catalyst: the upcoming second deadline for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings. At this point, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will either announce its decision or defer it, regarding the approval of these ETFs. If approved, Bitcoin’s price might reach beyond $40K.
In the short term, the outlook for Bitcoin appears bearish due to a recent spike in dormant BTC activity, the third largest in three months. The re-entry of these inactive coins into the trading market could temporarily upset the supply-demand balance, influencing price swings.
What’s Next For BTC Price?
Bitcoin has consistently stayed above its 20-day EMA of $26,988, signaling that this level has been converted into support by bullish players. Buyers are now aiming to strengthen their hold by pushing the price beyond $27,500, but bears are defending strongly. As of writing, BTC price trades at $26,168, surging over 0.6% from yesterday’s rate.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting, a tough battle is anticipated at the $27K level, where bears are likely to put up strong resistance. A sharp decline from this level would suggest that the BTC price could trade within the bearish zone of $26,500 to $26,000 for a short period.
Conversely, if the bulls manage to send the price above the $28,100 resistance, it would pave the way for $30,500.
However, the RSI level is trading way above the midline, currently hovering around 61 along with a positive SMA-14 level, suggesting that the momentum is favoring bullish traders. As a result, BTC price might be preparing for upward volatility in the short-term.