Ethereum [ETH] has been in a rough spot on the price charts since early August when the price slipped below the $1850 level. The trend pointed downward even on the higher timeframe price charts and the buyers could have a torrid time correcting this course.
Reports that the SEC acknowledged review of the Ethereum ETF applications from VanEck and Ark Invest was a positive development in the long run. The falling transaction fees were also a talking point as the network could enter a phase of inflation.
The bearish structure would likely see ETH fall to $1500
The 1-day price chart above showcased Ethereum forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since early August. This characterized a downtrend. The Fibonacci retracement levels from mid-March showed that the $1533 level was the 78.6% retracement level.
It was tested as support on 11 September, and consequently, ETH bounced to the $1663 resistance. The bulls met with failure at that level and took losses over the past few days. As a result, the market structure was bearish on the lower timeframe charts such as 4-hour.
The RSI has been below neutral 50 on the daily chart since mid-July and signaled a downtrend in progress. The OBV has also shown no intent of breaking its downtrend from June, which meant buying pressure remained weak.
Hence, even though the $1533 was technically significant and was close to the $1500 psychological support, buying ETH in that region could be risky.
The metrics showed recovery was possible but is another wave of selling imminent?
The mean coin age took a large hit on 11 September as holders exited the market in large numbers. It had been in an uptrend since June and resumed its upward trajectory over the past two weeks.
This showed an accumulation of the token across the network. The MVRV ratio was negative and showed the token was likely undervalued.
These findings were encouraging for buyers but the exchange flow balance metric saw a large spike on 23 September, Saturday. The positive spike conveyed 65.4k ETH tokens arriving in exchange wallets, amounting to $100 million.
While every such spike does not mean a sell-off will occur within a week, it was strong evidence that ETH could post further losses on the price chart. Therefore the $1500 support level could see a retest.