David Rosenberg, a well-known economist, has predicted a “crash landing” and recession for the American economy. He urged, “Take a long hard look at this chart and tell me we are heading for a’soft’ or ‘no’ landing,” referring to a manufacturing index chart compiled by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. In more literal terms, it was a “crash” landing.
In a tweet last week, renowned economist David Rosenberg expressed concern that the American economy could be heading for a crash landing. At Rosenberg Research, Rosenberg holds the dual role of president and chief economist. He has held senior positions at both Merrill Lynch and Gluskin Sheff, New York’s private wealth management and investment banking institutions, respectively.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is based on the monthly Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, which includes the states of Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania and is home to over 13.3 million people. The index was shared on Twitter on Thursday. Since its inception in May 1968, the survey has been conducted monthly. In March, the index in the United States rose by one point, reaching -23.2.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, as revealed on Twitter in February by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning.Every time this indicator has been at or below current levels (data going back to 1968), the U.S. economy has been in or was about to enter a recession.
Several respected figures in the financial sector are now forecasting a catastrophic downturn for the American economy. Most recently, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Wealthy Dad, Poor Dad, predicted a “crash landing.” Investor Michael Burry of the film “The Big Short” drew parallels between the present banking crisis and the Panic of 1907. Peter Schiff, an economic analyst, claims the current financial crisis will be even more severe than the one of 2008. Conversely, venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan claimed on Friday that hyperinflation is already occurring, predicting a bitcoin price increase to $1 million in under 90 days.